The probability of both groups of asteroids to hit earth is regularly evaluated (once they have been detected at all) by the International Asteroids Warning Network (IAWN, see https://iawn.net/)
Based on the inherent uncertainties of measurement data which human kind has during the approach of a still far away asteroid it is scientifically difficult to predict whether the asteroid will or will not hit earth. That is why IAWN publishes "probabilities" for the hit. E.g. one of the recent ones was 2024 YR4, which is today estimated with a 1,2 percent probability to hit earth in 2032. Other much earlier ones are being surveyed as well.
In contrast to the question "if the asteroid hits", it is well possible to predict (based on the same data) when and where on earth the asteroid will hit, if it hits.
Now imagine, what will happen, if 3 days before potential hit, news gets out that a specific country or subcontinent is most probable to suffer the impact. When such info is in the public domain, panic and mass-exodus will immediately set in in the affected area. All means of land-, sea- and air-transportation will immediately be exhausted and come to a complete breakdown. Only those people, who leave the scene hours before the crowd tries to leave, will have a chance to leave.
Given such a scenario it is not unrealistic to doubt, that scientific organizations as well as governments will try to withhold such information from the public as long as possible, if publishing it would only trigger the panic whilst the question is still open, whether the asteroid will actually hit or peacefully pass by earth. But at some given point of time, the news will break through.
Based on the above facts and further information Institut Kurz GmbH Germany with its relevant scientific department at Humboldt University Berlin Germany, decided to start an exclusive alert and warning system for a limited group of people worldwide.
For a privileged group of max 1000 people, all relevant information about asteroid–observations are systematically collected, pathways of asteroids recalculated and the probabilities for “hit” as well as the “when” and “where” will be independently determined. This info will be given to the participants in real time by email, monthly in case of no alert and weekly, daily, hourly in case of growing hit probability. Thus, the participants will always stay informed ahead of the public, as well – often enough – ahead of their governments. That will enable the participants to take their own decisions ahead of the crowd on necessary movement for safer area or action. It is the most actual and exclusive info on asteroids available on earth.
The membership monthly subscription will be US $ 100 (one Hundred).
The number of global members in the elite group will be limited to one thousand only, to ensure a sufficient level of confidentiality in case of growing danger.
• If you want to be warned about Earth-Approaching Asteroids earlier than the public…
• If you want to have a chance to leave the scene before the crowd blocks all means of transportation…
… get in touch with us.
asteroid@institut-kurz.de